A prediction market for everyday life.
Ask a clear yes/no question about your world, seed it, and the crowd prices what people actually believe will happen — in real time. Llatria is the place for the questions only you and the people around you would think to ask.
Markets on your world
Most prediction markets chase the headlines — elections, macro, sports. Llatria goes the other way. The questions worth asking are the everyday ones: will the new café survive the winter, will I finish the thesis on time, will my cousin actually run the marathon.
Economics is the study of what people do and why. So our markets are about real life, not the news cycle — organized by the arenas of it: School, Work, Money, Local, People, Home & Pets, Health, Tech, Play, and Food & Drink.
How it works
Make a market
Pick a yes/no question, write the rules that decide it, choose who settles it, and seed it with a little play money. (Not sure how to phrase it? The AI can turn a plain idea into a clean, resolvable market for you.)
The crowd prices it
From the moment it’s created, anyone can buy YES or NO — prices move with demand, so there’s never an empty market waiting for someone to take the other side. Every $1 backs one YES + one NO, so a winning contract always pays exactly $1.00.
It graduates
Once a market crosses $10,000 in volume, it moves from its starter curve onto a full order book, where traders post their own prices for sharper, tighter pricing.
It resolves
At close, the chosen source decides the outcome — a person, a data feed, or an AI that only auto-resolves when it’s confident and hands anything borderline to a human.
Everyone settles
Winning contracts pay $1.00 each from the market’s own collateral; every cent is accounted for. No leverage, ever.
An educational market — for now
Llatria didn’t invent the academic prediction market — we’re continuing one. The first was the Iowa Electronic Markets in 1988; PredictIt followed in 2014. Both were run by universities, not-for-profit and capped, to study how crowds forecast — and both were cleared by U.S. regulators as genuine research.
We’re on the same path: play money and capped today, with a university partnership ahead to make the educational mission official. Real money, if it ever comes, would be a deliberate and regulated step — never something that happens quietly.
Built as a real exchange
Llatria owns its entire stack — the starter curve, the order book, the ledger, and settlement all run here, with no third-party exchange or custody in the loop. It’s engineered from day one to the standards a regulated exchange has to meet:
- Fully collateralized. A dollar in, a dollar out. Every YES + NO pair is backed by exactly $1 — no leverage, no margin.
- Money is conserved. Every settlement only redistributes money that already exists. Nothing is created or destroyed; pools drain exactly to zero.
- Fully audited. An append-only log records every trade, graduation, surveillance flag, and resolution — with self-trade prevention built into the matching engine.